Lending Defies Rise in Interest Rates
Lending to home buyers to build or purchase new dwellings defied the increase in interest rates in October but was blunted by continued weakness in lending for rental investment.
Loans for the construction of new dwellings and the purchase of newly built homes combined increased by 5.7 per cent following a rise in September.
New housing loans increased in 13 of the last 14 months.
The strength of lending to owner-occupiers continued to be countered by weakness in loans for new investment housing which experienced a fall of 0.6 per cent.
Loans for new investment housing were down 10.5 per cent over the last three months relative to the corresponding period of the previous year.
The housing industry will be relying on a strong investor market over 2010 to assist in a broad based housing recovery through 2010.
The investment lending figures bode poorly for this outcome and signal another year of skinny rental vacancies and upward pressure on rents in the real estate market.
During October, loans for the construction of new dwellings increased by 9.2 per cent, while loans for the purchase of newly built dwellings fell by 3.9 percent. Further interest rate increases in November and December and the potential for more in the new year, along with the removal of the first home owners’ boost mean that achieving further growth over 2009 and 2010 in owner-occupier loans will be more difficult.
Higher interest rates, lower the first home owner grants and unrelenting supply side impediments to new home building provide a challenging environment for the much needed revival of the residential housing market as we move into 2010.
The total number of seasonally adjusted loans for owner-occupiers (net of refinancing) fell by 1.5 per cent in the month of October 2009.
The number of such loans, however, was up by 37.4 per cent compared to October 2008.